Pick Record
Every pick the model made this season, graded against the final score and the betting favorite.
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The season so far
How often the model’s pick won, against the betting favorite (the consensus closing line), in the same games. “Avg. miss” is how far the predicted margin was from the final margin. Weeks 1–7 were reconstructed when this page launched, using only results known before each week. Picks from Week 8 on were published before kickoff and count as live.
Week by week
Share of winners picked right. Faded bars are reconstructed weeks; solid bars are live picks.
Every pick
Final ranking scorecard
The committee releases its final ranking on Selection Sunday, Dec 6. Then this card scores every week’s forecast against it: the chance the model gave the real #1, how many of the real top 4, top 12 and top 25 it had (with the AP poll in parentheses), and how many of the real 12-team field its projected bracket held.
Final committee top 12: