12-Team Bracket
The projected College Football Playoff under the 2026 rules, with each team’s chance of making the field.
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Projected 12-team bracket
The committee ranks teams its own way, so this is a best guess, not a forecast of any one outcome. The field uses the model’s most likely final ranking and each conference’s most likely champion under the 2026 rules: the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 champions, Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 12, the highest-ranked Group of Six champion, then at-large teams by ranking. Seeds follow the ranking; the top four get byes and first-round games are on the higher seed’s campus. In each game the team the model favors advances, with its chance of winning shown.
The field
How each team got in, its projected final ranking, and how often it made this field and earned a bye across all simulated seasons. Click a team for its full odds.
On the bubble
Teams outside the projected field with the best chance to make it, from every simulated season.
Group of Six race
One bid goes to the highest-ranked champion of the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.